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    • Can ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) be assessed? Does analyzing declining ore grades help?
    Authors: Friedrich-W., Wellmer; Roland W., Scholz; Dennis, Bastian;  Advisor: -;  Co-Author: - (2023)

    Inspired by a paper by Teseletso and Adachi (Miner Econ 8(10):21, 2021), the hypothesis regarding the declining grade of mined copper ore and its possible use as a guide to the future of ultimate recoverable resources (URRs) is tested. As a time axis, cumulative production is taken. Grades can be either grade of cumulative tonnage or annual production grade. Correlation can be linear (grade and tonnage) or semi-logarithmic (grade linear, tonnage logarithmic). We first show that the assumption that the highest correlation is the best guide to the future may be a fallacy. This is the linear correlation between grades of cumulative tonnage and cumulative tonnages since 1959, i.e., 85% of all copper mined historically with a near-perfect correlation approaching one (R2 = 0.97). This lea...