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    • Development of a mathematical model to predict the health impact and duration of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks on board cargo vessels
    Authors: Ng, Kok Yew; Codreanu, Tudor A.; Gui, Meei Mei;  Advisor: -;  Co-Author: - (2022)

    The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) pandemic has brought significant impact onto the maritime activities worldwide, including disruption to global trade and supply chains. The ability to predict the evolution and duration of a COVID-19 outbreak on cargo vessels would inform a more nuanced response to the event and provide a more precise return-to-trade date. This paper presents the SEIQ(H)R (Susceptibility–Exposed–Infected–Quarantine–(Hospitalisation)–Removed/Recovered) model, which is the first deterministic mathematical model developed and fit-tested to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 on board cargo vessels of up to 60 crew members. Due to specific living and working circumstances on board cargo vessels, instead of utilising the reproduction number, we consider the h...