Browsing by Author Thanh Cong, Nguyen
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This paper introduces a new database of financial crises, providing an important insight into the causes, duration, and consequences of different types of financial crises. Besides extending the systemic banking crises database by Laeven and Valencia (2020) to the period 1970–2019, we develop new approaches for the identification of currency and sovereign debt crises, which we regard as preferable in some respects to those in the literature. Covering 206 countries, our crises database draws on 151 systemic banking crises (1970–2019), 414 currency crises (1950–2019), 200 sovereign debt crises (1960–2019), 75 twin crises (1970–2019), and 21 triple crises (1970–2019). We provide evidence... |
We study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the probability and duration of economic recessions in 10 major European Union countries over the period 1987Q2–2021Q1. We find that economic policy uncertainty results in not only a higher probability of economic recessions but also longer recessions. Specifically, with a one-standard-deviation increase in the economic policy uncertainty index, on average the probability of an economic recession goes up by 14%, and the probability of an economic recession ending reduces by 27%, controlling for general economic uncertainty and economic and political factors. Moreover, we find that fiscal expansion, adequate political support, and l... |
